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Investment Fables: Exposing the Myths of "Can't Miss" Investment Strategies, by Aswath Damodaran
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The truth about 13 of today's most widely touted investment strategies.
- 10 powerful lessons for every investor
- Overcoming the enduring myths about markets
- High dividend stocks: better and safer than bonds--or not?
- Cheap stocks: cheap for a reason?
- Should you invest in quality? Momentum? The next big thing? Or what?
You've heard 'em. (Maybe even from your broker!) They're the "can't lose" investment stories that promise you a no-risk path to profits …
- "Buy companies trading below book value."
- "Follow the momentum."
- "Buy stocks with low P/Es."
- "Stick with quality."
- "Buy after bad news."
- "Buy after good news."
- "Follow the insiders."
- "Do whatever Warren Buffett's doing."
And on, and on, and on …
They sound good. But do they really work? You're about to find out.
In Investment Fables, one of the world's leading investment researchers runs the numbers on 13 of today's most widely touted strategies, objectively answering the questions your broker can't answer. Has it worked over the long term? Over the short term? If it made sense once, does it still make sense? Are the promised benefits a statistical mirage? Could it work, as one part of your investment strategy? What are the downsides–and how can you mitigate them?
If you want to make smarter investment decisions, you'll find this book utterly indispensable.- Sales Rank: #636616 in Books
- Published on: 2004-03-22
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.10" h x 1.20" w x 6.20" l, 1.80 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 539 pages
From the Back Cover
The truth about 13 of today's most widely touted investment strategies.
- 10 powerful lessons for every investor
- Overcoming the enduring myths about markets
- High dividend stocks: better and safer than bonds--or not?
- Cheap stocks: cheap for a reason?
- Should you invest in quality? Momentum? The next big thing? Or what?
- "Buy companies trading below book value."
- "Follow the momentum."
- "Buy stocks with low P/Es."
- "Stick with quality."
- "Buy after bad news."
- "Buy after good news."
- "Follow the insiders."
- "Do whatever Warren Buffett's doing."
About the Author
Aswath Damodaran is Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, where he teaches corporate finance and equity valuation in the MBA program.
He has published widely in the field, for leading journals such as The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, The Journal of Finance, The Journal of Financial Economics, and The Review of Financial Studies.
He has also authored several books, including The Dark Side of Valuation (Financial Times Prentice Hall) and two books on corporate finance. With Peter Bernstein, he co-authored Investment Management.
He received the Stern School of Business Excellence in Teaching Award in 1988, 1991, 1992, 1999, and 2001. In 1994, he was profiled in Business Week as one of the top 12 U.S. business school professors.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
As investors, you have all been on the receiving end of sales pitches from brokers, friends and investment advisors about stocks that they claim will deliver spectacular returns. These stories not only sound persuasive and reasonable but are also backed up by evidence-anecdotal, in some cases, and statistical, in others-that the strategies work. When you try to implement them for your investments, though, you seldom can match their success on paper. All too often, you end up with buyer’s remorse, poorer for the experience and promising yourselves that you will not fall for the allure of these stories again. All too often, you forget the lessons of past mistakes and are easy prey for the next big stock story.
While there are literally hundreds of schemes to beat the market in circulation, they are all variants of about a dozen basic themes that have been around for as long as there have been stocks to buy and sell. These broad themes are modified, given new names and marketed as new and different investment strategies by salespeople to a new generation of investors. There must be something in these stories that appeals to investor instincts and to human weaknesses- greed, fear and hubris, to name but three-to give them the staying power that they do. This book is an exploration of the appeal of these stories, why so many investors fall for them and fail with them, and what it may take to win with each of them.
As you will see, with each story, there is a kernel of truth that makes it believable and a base in financial theory that allows proponents to claim to have a solid rationale. Each chapter begins with an examination of the basis for each investment story and the theory that would justify its adoption. Why bother with the theory? Not only will it give you perspective on what makes each story work, but it will also allow you to identify potential weaknesses with the story.
If you have been on the receiving end of one of these investment stories, you probably have also been told of studies that back them up and you are offered evidence of their potency. It should come as no surprise, given the source, that most of these studies give you only a portion of the truth. As you will see in this book, every investment strategy ever devised has succeeded for some periods and with some stocks, but the complete picture requires an assessment of whether it works over long periods and with a wide cross section of stocks. That is why you will see a review of the existing empirical evidence, drawn from both believers and skeptics, on each strategy and some of the potential problems with each.
With every investment strategy, investors also grapple with the question of what adopting that strategy will mean in terms of investment choices. If you adopt a strategy of buying "low" PE stocks, you have to judge what represents a low PE ratio and what types of stocks have low PE ratios. If you believe that your best investments are in small companies, you have to decide how to measure the size of companies -sales, market capitalization, etc.-and what level would represent a small company. You will be presented with rules of thumb, that a PE of 8 is cheap or that a company with a market capitalization less than $100 million is small, but these rules of thumb can be dangerous as markets themselves change over time. To provide a frame of reference, this book examines the distribution of various measures- PE, price-to-book ratio and market capitalization, to name a few- across the entire market. This should then allow you to get a sense of differences across the market and to develop portfolio standards.
The best test of any strategy is to apply it to the market and to peruse the portfolio that you would have ended up with as a result of following it. This book attempts to do this with each of the broad strategies examined, and you can ask yourself whether you would be comfortable investing in the stocks that make up this portfolio. If you are not, it is a warning sign that this strategy may not be appropriate for you. If you are a careful investor, putting this portfolio under a microscope will allow you to study the strategy for weaknesses and examine what you can do to minimize the damage.
It is worth emphasizing what this book is about and what it does not try to do. It is not about promoting or debunking investment strategies, since there are plenty of analysts and brokers who do the former and lots of cynics, many from academia, who do the latter. But it is about providing a full picture of each investment strategy so that you can make your own judgments about what works and what does not. It is not about answering every investment question that has ever been asked; no one can have the foresight to do this. But it is about providing you with the ammunition to ask the right questions when confronted with promoters of these strategies. It is not a book for pessimists who are convinced that picking stocks is an exercise in futility, but it is a book for optimists who want to figure out how to make active strategies pay off and how to use them prudently. It is not about things you cannot and should not do while investing, but it is about things you can and should do as an investor to improve your odds for success.
As long as there have been financial markets, there have been mountebanks and frauds luring investors into get-rich schemes that ultimately fail. In the aftermath of these failings, you are often tempted to turn to the courts and to governments to protect you from yourself. The best antidote, though, to an unscrupulous sales pitch about "stocks that cannot lose" or to a "get rich quickly" scheme is a skeptical and informed investor. I hope this book helps you become one.
Most helpful customer reviews
21 of 22 people found the following review helpful.
Reality check for investors
By Q
This is a thick book, but it reads pretty easily. The main message is that there are no easy profits in the stock market. There's no profit without risk, and that means you can lose your money just as easily as make money. He starts each chapter with a "fable," a story of some gullible investor who follows one of the conventional strategies for stock profits (for example, buy low p/e stocks) and, after losing money, finds out it's not that simple. Rather than simply debunking all the traditional stock market investing strategies, he explores how much, if any, truth there is each one, and how you would need to practice that strategy in order to make money. For example, instead of simply screening for low p/e stocks, you would need to add other criteria in order to avoid the real losers. The strategies he investigates are
High dividend
Low P/E
Low Price to Book Value Ratio
Stable earnings
Superior management
Growth stocks
Contrarian
Small Caps and IPOs
Mergers and Acquisitions
Arbitrage
Momentum
Insiders and Experts
Market timing
Buy and Hold
All in all, it's well-written and interesting. The author is a professor, but he writes for a general audience.
The problem is that his whole approach here is in terms of CLASSES of stocks, rather than individual stocks. He assumes that investors find stocks using stock screening software only, while for most investors that is only a first step. Fro example, Damodarn assumes that contrarian investors buy a stock ONLY because it's gone down in price. But contrarian investors look for stocks which have been beaten down in price unfairly. They look at the whole company, its strengths, weaknesses, and potential for growth. Damodaran's comments mostly apply to mutual funds and asset classes (e.g. small growth). His argument is based on statistical performance of asset classes, but most stock investors buy invidual stocks based on a variety of criteria.
8 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
Well researched and balanced book
By Reena
This book is a very accessible overview of finance research on most major investing strategies (or themes). The author introduces each chapter with a short story and then builds the case around each investing theme. The bottom line is that there is no investing "silver bullet" - which is probably intuitive, but often neglected in the search for a magical investing potion.
The major contribution of this book is to address each one of the investing themes (Low P/E, Low P/S etc.) in great depth and actually build model portfolios. Damodaran has comprehensive command of his material and presents concepts in a very readable manner. If you are looking for an in-depth treatment of investment strategies, this is a great book.
25 of 33 people found the following review helpful.
Damodaran Succeeds Again
By Steven Eggerton
I have every one of Damodaran's books, and they have all helped me greatly. This book is no exception. If you want to gain investment knowledge without the pain and losses most people suffer, read his books. Take a look at Damodaran's website also. The webcasts of his classes at NYU are fantastic.
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