PDF Ebook Technical Analysis: Power Tools for Active Investors, by Gerald Appel
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Technical Analysis: Power Tools for Active Investors, by Gerald Appel
PDF Ebook Technical Analysis: Power Tools for Active Investors, by Gerald Appel
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Unlike most technical analysis books, Gerald Appel's Practical Power Tools! offers step-by-step instructions virtually any investor can use to achieve breakthrough success in the market. Appel illuminates a wide range of strategies and timing models, demystifying even advanced technical analysis the first time. Among the models he covers: NASDAQ/NYSE Relative Strength, 3-5 Year Treasury Notes, Triple Momentum, Seasonality, Breadth-Thrust Impulse, and models based on the revolutionary MACD techniques he personally invented. Appel covers momentum and trend of price movement, time and calendar cycles, predictive chart patterns, relative strength, analysis of internal vs. external markets, market breadth, moving averages, trading channels, overbought/oversold indicators, Trin, VIX, major term buy signals, major term sell signals, moving average trading channels, stock market synergy, and much more. He presents techniques for short-, intermediate-, and long-term investors, and even for mutual fund investors.
- Sales Rank: #892872 in Books
- Published on: 2005-03-31
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.52" h x .80" w x 7.27" l, 1.27 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 264 pages
Review
FROM STOCK TRADER'S ALMANAC 2006:
"The best investment book of the year"
FROM SFO MAGAZINE, (www.sfomag.com)
"Wisdom gained from three decades of studying stock markets and creating timing indicators is what you will find in Gerald Appel's latest book. ... This book is a master technician's superb source of well-crafted ideas for timing indicators."
--George A. Schade, CMT
About the Author
About the Author
Gerald Appel has, since 1973, published Systems and Forecasts, a leading technical analysis publication. Appel is legendary for his work in technical analysis and market timing, including the creation of Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD), one of the field's most widely used tools. His numerous books include, among others, Winning Market Systems: 83 Ways to Beat the Market, Stock Market Trading Systems (with Fred Hitschler), New Directions in Technical Analysis (with Dr. Martin Zweig), The Big Move, and Time-Trend III. His company, Signalert Corporation, and affiliates, currently manages more than $550,000,000 in investor capital. Appel has trained thousands of traders through his world-renowned video and audio tapes, seminars, and workbooks. He recently taught a series of four-day international master classes on investing and trading strategies in partnership with Dr. Alex Elder. As Appel puts it, "I have never lost anything by giving ideas away. If people find it useful, it makes me feel good."
© Copyright Pearson Education. All rights reserved.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
IntroductionIntroduction
This book, Technical Analysis, is meant for every investor who has been hurt trusting his brokerage firm, trusting his friendly mutual fund manager, or trusting the latest hot guru. It is meant for every investor who has ever wished for the skills required to deal with an increasingly volatile and uncertain stock market. It is meant for every investor willing to take responsibility for the outcome of his own investments. It is meant for every investor ready to take at least some of the time and to put forth at least some of the effort required for the quest.
The stock market tends to condition investors to make the wrong decisions at the wrong times. For instance, the stock market explosion of the late 1920s convinced investors that the only path for stocks was up, and that the prospects of stocks rising indefinitely justified even the high levels of margin leverage that could be employed at the time.
Investors plowed in, the stock market collapsed, and, thereafter, the public remained fearful of stocks for 20 years, although the stock market actually reached its lows during 1931 and 1932. In the mid-1990s, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was king and index mutual funds were the royal coach. Between 1996 and 1998, huge inflows of capital were injected into Standard & Poor's 500–based index mutual funds, such as those sponsored by Vanguard. The largest inflows took place just before a serious intermediate market decline in mid-1998. The market advance that followed that decline was headed not by the Standard & Poor's 500 sector of the stock market, but by speculative areas of the Nasdaq Composite: technology sectors (Internet issues and the like) that, in some cases, sold for hundreds of dollars per share, even though many companies had no earnings whatsoever. And then came the crash, in March of 2000. The Nasdaq Composite ultimately declined by more than 77%.
So, investors returned to the sanctity of total return, value, earnings, and dividends, not the worst strategy during the bear market that took place between 2000 and 2002, but definitely not the best of strategies when the new bull market more clearly emerged during the spring of 2003. The play returned to technology and the Internet, with growth back in and total return back out. (During the first nine months of 2004, however, technology issues once again lost market leadership to value- and income-oriented market sectors.)
The point, of course, is that the typical investor follows and does not lead trends, is late rather than early, and is a crowd-follower rather than a self-director. According to Dalbar, Inc., a financial services research firm, the average equity fund investor realized an annualized return of 5.32% between 1984 and 2000, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose at a rate of 16.3% per annum. Matters become even worse when comparisons are updated through July 2003. The average investor was ahead by only 2.6% per year for the 1984–2003 period, compared to annualized returns of 12.2% for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
This book has been prepared to help investors achieve better than average performance—considerably better, we believe.
The structure of Technical Analysis has been designed to provide information and investment tools, some of which can be put to work immediately, by both sophisticated and relatively unsophisticated stock market investors. I will share with you, right at the start, my favorite techniques for picking mutual funds and ETFs (securities that trade on the stock exchange and act similarly to market index mutual funds but provide greater investment flexibility at lower ongoing internal management fees, though, possibly, with some initial commission expense, which is often involved with mutual funds as well).
We move from there to some of the basic tools stock market technicians use to track and predict market behavior. A certain amount of statistical calculations is required in applying some of the "practical power tools" you will be learning—nothing truly complex. I have placed a strong emphasis on the "practical" in "practical power tools." The KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) principle is observed throughout the book—at least, to the best of my ability.
For example, in Chapter 1, "The No-Frills Investment Strategy," I show you two indicators that, together, should require no more than five or ten minutes for you to post and maintain each week—that's right, each week, not each day. These have a fine history of helping investors discriminate between favorable and unfavorable market climates. Nothing in the stock market can ever be guaranteed for the future, of course, but you will see how powerful these two simple indicators have been during more than three decades of stock market history in supplementing your selections for market investment with straightforward but surprisingly effective market-timing strategies.
Even if you go no further, you will have already acquired a useful arsenal of tools for improved investment results. By this time, you might well have become ready for additional, more involved technical tools that I have found over the decades to be more than useful in my own investment decisions. These include, for example, T-formations, special time-based patterns of market movement that frequently provide advance notice of when market turning points are likely to occur. In a subsequent chapter, you learn about the application of moving average trading channels, a technique for employing certain patterns of past market behavior to predict likely patterns for the future.
Finally, you get my personal take on Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD), an indicator that I invented in the late 1970s and, since then, has become one of the most widely followed of market-forecasting tools employed by technical analysts, private and professional. You will learn how to maintain the MACD indicator and how to interpret it for time frames ranging from 15 minutes (for day trading) to many years (for long-term investing).
Each of these indicators alone can be quite powerful, particularly as you develop the facility for combining various elements of your trading strategy for disciplined decision-making, higher returns, and less risk. Synergy helps the cause. I will show you many ways to achieve this synergy.
All in all, Technical Analysis is about the best stock-market timing tools that I have learned in nearly 40 years of studying, trading in, and writing about the stock market. These are real tools, practical tools, tools that my staff and I employ every day in tracking the stock market and investing our own and our clients' capital. These are tools that you, yourself, can begin to employ almost immediately.
There will be some additional interesting side trips and excursions along the way, but I think that we will conclude the description of our itinerary at this point. The time has come to begin the journey....
Most helpful customer reviews
36 of 36 people found the following review helpful.
30 years of wisdom in one setting
By Robert Kargenian
For novices interested in technical analysis, there is so much material here it might seem overwhelming. But believe me, the effort at exploration is worth it. I've been successfully applying Appel's work since 1984, and this all-encompassing treatise was like looking over his shoulder, soaking in his 30 years of wisdom on the markets.
I was especially interested in the section on the relative strength comparing the performance of the NYSE to the NASDAQ. This area of the book alone is worth the price of admission.
Professionals in the field are likely to be familiar with most concepts in the book. But over the years, I've found many misapply the use of MACD, an excellent indicator Appel invented which has become a staple in technical analysis. All would be advised to read how Appel uses his own invention.
There's something for everyone in this book, novice and professional alike. Few have contributed more to technical studies and money management than Gerald Appel. Don't just put this on your bookshelf--read it, use it and learn from it. It will make you a better investor and trader.
34 of 35 people found the following review helpful.
A good TA "and" trading book for relatively advanced players
By ServantofGod
I am a mechanical trader using primarily trendline, MACD and Stochastics. That explains why I immediately picked this book up when the tagline "Inventor of MACD" on the front cover entered my eyes. Out of expectation, this book had only one (out of ten) chapter on MACD (but I did learn that the author used 6-19 and 19-39 other than 12-26 as parameters). The rest were on volume, moving average, oscillator type TA tools, plus strategies on fund selection and switching, and trading on seasonal+cyclical factors (Chapter 5 which I like the most, that he explained with solid data why the Nov-Jan period, the pre-election year etc are the best time to enter the market). As a trading book, this is relatively compleat and helpful, though I admit I am biased for my respect to the author. In short, recommended, particularly for those with certain trading experience + TA knowledge and want to acquire more for an edge.
p.s. As a VAS to you and a support to my review above, below pleaes find a summary of "Lessons I (the author) have learned during 40 years as a trader" in the last chapter.
- The news media tend to be the last to know and almost always tend to follow stock market trends rather than to lead them.
- There might be many benefits in attending lectures, meetings....but it is probably best to operate alone.
- It is best to keep your results and performance private.
- Human nature operate against good trading practices. Traders often tend to close out their strongest positions too early and maintain their weakest positions for too long.
- The name of the game is to make a good (but not unreasonable) return for your time and capital, not to feel smart.
- Dont confuse rising stock prices with being a financial genius.
- In-and-out trading will not be as profitable as well considered intermediate term trading.
- It is better to miss a profit than to take a loss.
- It is probably best not to operate at the market opening.
- Do not enter into an invested position without an exit plan
- It is much better to trade with no more capital than you can comfortably risk.
- Three consecutive successful trades makes us feel like a genius. That's when they get us.....
- Make note of some losing transactions....The stock market, at best, is a game of probabilities.
- Be free to simply stand aside until matters clarify.
73 of 83 people found the following review helpful.
A rehash of old stuff!
By Steven Phillips
If you are familiar with this author's previous works you will find very little in this book which is new. He discussed the "new low" filter and the several variants of his original MACD indicator more than twenty years ago. MACD was then, and is now, a lagging indicator with dubious utility.
The research that the author cares to share with the book's purchaser is largely stale-dated or inaccurate. For example, where Appel discusses a non-original indicator, such as VIX, he states that it gives only long-term indications and that it has not yet been determined how to use this working tool for shorter-term indications. In fact, VIX is one of the better intermediate-term working tools - you can prove this for yourself! Go to stockcharts.com, run a weekly Sharp-chart of $VIX with a five week RSI. This 5 week RSI indicates bottoms in the weekly $SPX at readings in excess of 60, and tops in the $SPX at readings of 40 or below. Run a comparable chart for the $SPX and compare the weekly swing highs and lows with the 5 week RSI readings on the $VIX. You will find a quite good correlation! (Also, the weekly new low indicator can be used in the same manner to test for market bottoms - simply construct a 5 week RSI and see how well the market bottoms are pointed-out at readings in excess of 60.)
It is somewhat amazing to me how some authors repackage old stuff, which was only moderately useful when it was new, and sell it long after the point of diminishing returns has been passed. This is an OK book for someone just starting out in the markets - but I feel that there are many better ones available, such as by authors, John Murphy, Alexander Elder, and Van Tharp.
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